Why Hurricane Dorian's path is so hard to predict

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The Tampa Bay Times reports that Hurricane Dorian had initially been forecast to directly hit Florida's east coast. But the next day, forecasts showed the storm's center drifting east of the state, and then later edging a bit back to the west.

Experts have said Dorian's path has been especially unpredictable, and here's why.

National Weather Service meteorologist Lance Wood told Live Science that the Atlantic high pressure system steering Hurricane Dorian started to weaken on the west side.
Weakened winds have led to the storm moving very slowly at just 7 miles per hour. This puts its approach further into the future and makes forecasting its track more difficult.

According to the Weather Channel, Dorian is expected to turn north as a gap opens up between the high-pressure Bermuda High system in the Atlantic and a low pressure system from the Great Lakes region.

The timing and angle of the turn will depend on its interactions with the Bermuda High system, which forecasters have limited knowledge of and thus cannot accurately project.

RUNDOWN SHOWS:
1. Changing forecasts for Hurricane Dorian's track
2. Atlantic high pressure system steering Dorian weakens, storm slows
3. Timing and angle of Dorian's turn north unpredictable
4. Where Hurricane Dorian could make landfall

VOICEOVER (in English):
"The Tampa Bay Times reports that Hurricane Dorian had initially been forecast to directly hit Florida's east coast. But the next day, forecasts showed the storm's center drifting east of the state, and then later edging a bit back to the west."

"Experts have said Dorian's path has been especially unpredictable, and here's why."

"National Weather Service meteorologist Lance Wood told Live Science that the Atlantic high pressure system steering Hurricane Dorian started to weaken on the west side."

"Weakened winds have led to the storm moving very slowly at just 7 miles per hour. This puts its approach further into the future and makes forecasting its track more difficult."

"According to the Weather Channel, Dorian is expected to turn north as a gap opens up between the high-pressure Bermuda High system in the Atlantic and a low pressure system from the Great Lakes region."

"The timing and angle of the turn will depend on its interactions with the Bermuda High system, which forecasters have limited knowledge of and thus cannot accurately project."

"According to NWS meteorologist Joel Cline, the most likely scenario is that Dorian will miss Florida's east coast and move northward toward Georgia. It is then expected to either pass close to or make landfall in South Carolina or North Carolina."

"The Los Angeles Times reports that if the storm does push toward the U.S. East coast, there is a potential for heavy rain and with it, damage from storm surges and flooding."


SOURCES: Tampa Bay Times, Live Science, Weather Channel, National Geographic, LA Times
https://www.tampabay.com/hurricane/2019/09/01/3-reasons-hurricane-dorian-has-been-so-hard-to-forecast/
https://www.livescience.com/hurricane-dorian-path-tricky.html
https://www.livescience.com/where-will-hurricane-dorian-make-landfall.html
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2019-09-02-hurricane-dorian-labor-day-bahamas-florida-georgia-carolinas
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/08/hurricane-dorian-science-behind-the-storm/
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2019-08-31/what-forces-are-pulling-hurricane-dorian-to-the-north